Time & date
Aurora Forecast
Where the aurora borealis and australis are likely right now, how strong geomagnetic activity is, and whether you might see the lights from where you are.
Kp now
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The animation is an artistic impression; its brightness follows the current Kp.
Aurora probability map, next 30–90 minutes
Looking down on the North Pole, 0° longitude (Greenwich) at the bottom. Rings every 10° of latitude down to 30°. The darker side of the map is night. Coastlines: Natural Earth.
Chance at my location
Kp index: observed and 3-day forecast
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Solid bars are observed or estimated, faded dashed bars are NOAA’s forecast; the black line is now.
- Kp 0–2: quiet. The aurora stays close to the poles and is usually dim.
- Kp 5 and up: a geomagnetic storm (G1 to G5 on NOAA’s scale). The oval widens toward the equator and brightens.
- Kp 6–9: NOAA notes the aurora gets bright and active and can reach the northern US at Kp 6–7, and overhead there at Kp 8–9.
How accurate is this?
The map is NOAA’s OVATION Prime model, an empirical model driven by solar wind measured about 1.5 million km upstream at the L1 point. It shows where aurora is likely in the next 30 to 90 minutes, not tonight or tomorrow. When the solar wind data are missing or contaminated, NOAA falls back on Kp and the lead time disappears.
Kp forecasts for the coming days depend on predicting solar eruptions and their arrival, which can be off by many hours or miss a storm entirely. Treat them as a guide to watch, not a promise. Clouds, moonlight, city lights and twilight matter as much as the forecast: a phone camera’s night mode often shows aurora that the eye sees only as a grey glow.
Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center — Aurora 30-minute forecast and planetary K-index, fetched directly by your browser every five minutes while this tab is open. Coastlines: Natural Earth (public domain). Town list: GeoNames, CC BY 4.0. This is not an official NOAA product.
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Frequently asked questions
Where does this aurora forecast come from?
From the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The map is its OVATION Prime model, an empirical model of aurora intensity developed at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and driven by solar wind measurements. The Kp values and three-day forecast are NOAA’s planetary K-index products. Your browser downloads them directly from NOAA; this page only draws them.
What does the percentage on the map mean?
It is OVATION’s probability of visible aurora at that spot during the next 30 to 90 minutes, assuming a dark, clear sky. The lead time comes from how long the solar wind takes to travel from the monitoring spacecraft at the L1 point to Earth. The number says nothing about clouds, moonlight or light pollution, so a high value over a cloudy town still means no aurora.
What is the Kp index?
Kp measures how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is, on a scale from 0 to 9, for each three-hour period, using magnetometers around the world. Kp 5 or more is a geomagnetic storm on NOAA’s scale: Kp 5 is G1, 6 is G2, 7 is G3, 8 and 9- are G4 and 9 is G5. The higher the Kp, the larger and brighter the auroral oval and the farther it reaches toward the equator.
Can I see the aurora if it is not overhead?
Yes. The aurora glows roughly 100 to 300 km above the ground, so it can be seen low over the horizon from a long way off. NOAA says it can be observed from as much as 1,000 km away when it is bright. That is why the page also shows the strongest forecast aurora within 1,000 km of you and its direction.
How far ahead can the northern lights be forecast?
Reliably, only about an hour ahead. The map forecast covers the next 30 to 90 minutes. The three-day Kp forecast depends on predicting solar eruptions and when they reach Earth, which can be off by many hours, and storms sometimes arrive weaker, stronger or not at all. Use it to decide which nights to watch, then check the live map.
When is the best time to look for the aurora?
On a clear, dark night, away from city lights, with an open view toward the pole (north in the Northern Hemisphere). NOAA’s tips say the best display is usually within an hour or two of midnight, and that the weeks around the spring and autumn equinoxes tend to bring more geomagnetic storms. A full Moon washes out faint aurora.
About this tool
This aurora forecast brings together NOAA’s live data for the northern lights (aurora borealis) and southern lights (aurora australis) on one page. The oval map shows where the OVATION Prime model expects visible aurora in the next 30 to 90 minutes, drawn as a polar view over a simple coastline map, with the night side shaded so you can see where it is dark. The Kp index panel shows the latest geomagnetic activity and NOAA’s three-day Kp forecast in three-hour steps, colour-coded by storm level.
The chance at my location panel turns the map into a plain answer. With your permission it reads your position once from the browser, or you can search a list of over a thousand towns, and it looks up the forecast probability overhead, the strongest aurora within 1,000 km and its compass direction, and whether the Sun is low enough for a dark sky. Your location stays in the page: it is not saved and not sent anywhere.
The forecast is only as good as its inputs, and this page tries to be honest about that. OVATION is driven by solar wind measured about 1.5 million km upstream, which gives roughly an hour of warning; when that data is missing, NOAA falls back on Kp and the lead time disappears. Multi-day Kp forecasts rely on predicting coronal mass ejections and can miss by hours or by a whole storm level. Clouds, moonlight and city lights decide as much as the forecast does.
Above the data is an animated aurora whose brightness and colour follow the current Kp: green curtains on quiet nights, taller displays with red and purple tops when activity rises. It is an artistic impression, not a photograph, and it stops moving if your device asks for reduced motion and pauses whenever the tab is hidden. Data: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center; coastlines: Natural Earth; town list: GeoNames.